Automakers including Mercedes, Daimler Trucks, BMW and others said their factories were operating normally.
A global chip shortage plaguing the auto industry is easing.
European automakers such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Daimler Trucks said they had secured enough chip parts to produce at full capacity. BMW said the company has not experienced any shutdowns due to chip supply and that all factories are up and running. "So far we have had no problems with basically running production globally," said Joerg Burzer, Mercedes' head of production and supply chain management. Daimler Trucks also expressed similar sentiments.
Sheng Linghai, research vice president of market research firm Gartner, said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News that supply and demand fundamentals and stockpiling are the main reasons for the shortage of supply in the automotive chip market. "From the second half of this year, the supply and demand of the automotive chip market may A balance is reached. However, since auto manufacturers do not directly purchase chips, if there are still manufacturers stockpiling chips, it may also cause a partial supply shortage.”
The structural core shortage of the market has eased
Sheng Linghai said that from the perspective of the entire chip market, as fabs and designers are working hard to produce more chips, since the second half of last year, the supply of the global chip market has continued to increase, and the structural shortage of the market has eased. .
According to data from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), in 2021, global chip sales will exceed US$500 billion for the first time, reaching US$555.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%. From the perspective of shipments, global chip shipments in 2021 will be 1.15 trillion pieces, also setting a historical record.
Sheng Linghai said that the situation in the automotive chip segment is quite similar, and the gap between supply and demand in this market is gradually being filled. "From the perspective of the supply side, auto companies have special requirements for chips (such as special processes, industrial rules, etc.), and their production lines are special. This means that after the production capacity is affected by factors such as the epidemic, other chip manufacturers cannot be short-term. Fill the gap. And when chip makers resumed production and tilted to a certain extent to automotive customers, the problem got better,” he said.
Data from market research firm ICinsights shows that in 2021, chip shipments from chip suppliers to the automotive industry will increase by 30% year-on-year, much higher than the 22% increase in total global chip shipments last year. Data from financial institution Susquehanna Financial Group showed that the average global chip lead time (the time it takes for a chip to go from order to delivery) was 27.1 weeks in May, basically the same as in April. The agency said the last time the lead time was flat or slightly shortened was in January, with about 60% of chip companies having shortened lead times.
Sheng Linghai further analyzed that from the demand side, since the beginning of last year, the global passenger car production has hardly recovered to the pre-epidemic level, which shows that the demand for automotive chips is cooling down.
According to data jointly released by market research institutions OICA and S&P Global, in 2021, global light vehicle production will be 80.1 million units, a decrease of nearly 12% from 2019. According to TrendForce data, in the first quarter of 2021, global car sales fell by 7% year-on-year.
Sheng Linghai also said that in addition to fundamental supply and demand factors, the reason for the previous shortage of automotive chips was that some automobiles and suppliers hoarded goods and robbed upstream resources. And when the fundamentals eased, market sentiment improved
'The situation is not perfect'
As for whether the chip supply problem can continue to ease, BMW and Volkswagen believe that the deadlock may begin to break in the second half of 2022. Morgan Stanley also said in a recent report that chip shortages may ease earlier than expected due to strong chip foundry shipments and slowing demand for consumer electronics.
Sheng Linghai believes that the cyclical characteristics of the chip industry are obvious, often showing a cycle of "increased demand - increased production capacity - excess capacity - decreased prices - stopped expanding production capacity - out of stock". "At present, many chip industries have plans to expand production, and the demand in the automotive industry is stable. The automotive chip market may reach a certain balance in the second half of this year." He said.
The latest forecast from IC Insights shows that global chip shipments are expected to increase by 9.2% year-on-year this year, after a substantial increase in global chip shipments last year. According to data jointly released by OICA and S&P Global, in 2022, global light vehicle production may reach 80.6 million units, or a year-on-year increase of 0.6%.
Karin Radstrom, head of the Mercedes brand, said: "Although the chip supply situation is better than last year, it is not perfect. We are still closely monitoring the situation." BMW also said that the company is still Chip supply is monitored daily and the possibility of new chip supply disruptions in the coming weeks and months is not ruled out.
Sheng Linghai said that the challenge for the automotive chip industry in the future may lie in whether the chip demand for new energy vehicles can be guaranteed. "First, the global sales of new energy vehicles are faster than traditional fuel vehicles and the global auto market. Second, new energy vehicles emphasize digitalization, and the demand and requirements for chips are higher than those of traditional fuel vehicles."
According to TrendForce data, new energy vehicles have achieved strong positive growth against the backdrop of declining global auto sales. In the first quarter, the total global sales of new energy vehicles (including pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles) reached 2.004 million units, an increase of 80% year-on-year.
"Currently, the number and grade of chips used in automobiles are greatly improving. For example, cars may have used relatively simple MCU (Microcontroller Unit) chips before, but now they are using high-speed MCUs, and even their For intelligent cockpits, Qualcomm has used relatively high-end application processor (AP) chips." Sheng Linghai said.
